Thursday, October 09, 2008

Predicting

Looking for information on Electoral Vote ties, I came across this, from Time Magazine:

The Bush-Gore race is the closest presidential contest since 1976, maybe since 1960. And when the race is that tight, suddenly the unthinkable becomes thinkable. What if one candidate loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College vote? ....Here are some bizarre, but plausible, scenarios that are not so simple.

--THE MINORITY WINS It's not likely that a candidate will win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote. But it happened in 1888, when Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland. If it happens this year, it's more likely Bush would win the popular vote but lose the electoral, because he will capture more states in which he will win by big margins. ...Unquestionably, the electoral vote winner would be President, but he'd lack a mandate and face a crisis of legitimacy.

Bush would win the popular vote, Gore the electoral vote, and Gore would become President but lack a mandate.... Hmm. Exactly the opposite, in every respect, as what did happen. This predicting is a lot easier when done backwards.

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